New analysis shows that Canada's goal of net zero emissions by 2050 will be unreachable without significant policy improvements

OTTAWA, ON, Sept. 11, 2026 /CNW/ -- New analysis of Canada's current emissions trajectory finds the country is not expected to hit its 2030 emissions target before 2050, let alone achieve net zero emissions by then. Under today's policies—including the implementation agreement for the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)—Canada would be more than 20 years behind schedule in achieving its international climate commitments, according to research by the Canadian Climate Institute's 440 Megatonnes project.

Unless governments across the country implement stronger policies, the Institute's analysis finds that national emissions in 2040 will be at least 202 million tonnes above levels aligned with a pathway to net zero emissions. The gap is roughly equivalent to leaving an extra 44 million gasoline-powered cars on the road by 2040—or nearly the total combined emissions of Ontario and British Columbia. If the country remains on its current course, by 2050 Canada's emissions would be 460 megatonnes higher than the legislated target of net zero.

The analysis, done in partnership with Navius Research, shows that Canada's projected emissions are higher now largely because governments across the country have rolled back several climate policy commitments. This includes weakened industrial carbon pricing, delayed methane regulations, changes to electric vehicle policy, and a cancelled oil and gas emissions cap, among others.

The remaining climate policy framework will struggle to offset the effects of more carbon-intensive development including expanded oil and gas production, new pipelines, and greater use of natural gas for electricity and heating.

Crucially, the analysis demonstrates that climate policies have been working to reduce emissions. Without the current suite of policy measures in place across the country, national emissions would be projected to be more than 90 megatonnes higher in 2030—roughly equivalent to total emissions from passenger road, rail, and air travel within Canada today.

The federal government has promised other measures that could reduce more emissions, including updates to carbon pricing standards, new regulations to achieve the equivalent of 75 per cent EV sales by 2035 and 90 per cent by 2040, and a strategy to expand power grids and electrify the economy. But the final details—and therefore the effectiveness—of those measures remain to be determined.

The new research comes on the heels of the 2026 Canada's Changing Climate report, a landmark scientific assessment detailing how the country is currently on track for 5° Celsius of average warming unless stronger action is taken to reduce emissions and limit economic damages at home and abroad.

QUOTES

"The latest numbers show Canada's goal of net zero emissions is nowhere in sight. At this rate, Canada would be lucky to hit its 2030 target in 2050—20 years behind schedule. That's an outcome we frankly can't afford. The latest science shows Canada must prepare for five degrees Celsius of warming and massive economic damages unless global efforts to reduce emissions prevail. If Canada is committed to achieving net zero by 2050 and strengthening trade and ties with other Middle Powers, all governments must strengthen policies to spur the shift to cleaner energy and technology. Our economic resilience depends on it.
— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

"Canada is putting its climate commitments on the back burner at the same moment our international peers and trading partners are leaning harder into the clean energy transition and the economic opportunities it offers. This emissions gap is about much more than a missed climate target—it's a flashing warning light about Canada's international competitiveness in the decades ahead."
— Dale Beugin, Executive Vice President, Canadian Climate Institute

"Governments across Canada, including the federal government, say they are committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Our analysis clearly shows that today's policy choices cannot get us there. The window to bend Canada's emissions towards net zero remains open, but it gets narrower by the day."
— Ross Linden-Fraser, Acting Director, 440 Megatonnes

RESOURCES

• Insight | Canada is now more than 20 years behind its 2030 target, with net zero nowhere in sight
• Insight| New analysis finds Canada-Alberta MOU leaves emissions largely unchanged
• Media statement | MOU with Alberta puts Canada's commitment to net zero emissions by 2050 firmly out of reach
• Insight| New analysis shows Canada-Alberta MOU treatment of industrial carbon pricing will make or break emissions outcome

About the Canadian Climate Institute
The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada's leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada's net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.
climateinstitute.ca

SOURCE Canadian Climate Institute